Long-Term Load Forecasting
Live Streaming Online August 15-16, 2022
A BankWebinars.com Program
Click Here to register ($1295)
If you are unable to attend at the scheduled date and time, we make recordings available to all registrants for three business days after the event
Load forecasting is a fundamental element in utility business operations and planning processes. During the past 100-plus years, load forecasting methodologies have evolved as the industry and related technologies advanced. Consequently, many classical methods are no longer suitable in addressing today’s challenges in the utility industry.
This course offers a comprehensive and in-depth, yet practical, approach to long-term load forecasting. The content includes:
- A review of the fundamental concepts and forecasting methodologies
- A statistical approach that leverages utility knowledge and practical experience
- Probabilistic forecasting methods that help better quantify the uncertainties of the unpredictable future
- Approaches to emerging challenges, including growth in distributed generation and electric vehicle penetration
It brings together the key concepts and practical applications to solving both long-standing and emerging forecasting challenges, including real life examples. Content is presented using clear language, spreadsheet format datasets, and simple tabular and graphical statistical output that is software agnostic.
Learning Outcomes
Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions that will allow them to:
- Review the fundamental concepts of load forecasting
- Recognize the evolution of classical load forecasting methods
- Prepare and build regression models
- Conduct ex poste forecasting to analyze the source of errors
- Evaluate long-term, class-specific energy and load forecasts
- Develop and apply scenario analyses
- Conduct weather normalization
- Incorporate real-life utility knowledge and judgment into forecasts
- Manage how to identify data errors and perform data ‘cleansing’
- Discuss emerging topics and the applicable problem-solving principles
Agenda
MONDAY, AUGUST 15, 2022
9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Central Time
9:00 – 9:15 a.m. :: Overview and Introductions
9:15 – 11:00 a.m. :: Introduction to Long-Term Load Forecasting
- Why is forecasting important?
- Utility applications
- Art and Science
- Principles of forecasting
- Load forecasting terminology
- Load forecasting process
11:00 – 11:15 a.m. :: Morning Break
11:15 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Data Requirements and Sources
- Data requirements
- Utility data
- Economic data
- Other data and sources
12:15 – 1:00 p.m. :: Break for Lunch
1:00 – 3:00 p.m. :: Regression Fundamentals & Model Development
- Statistical results
- Interpreting parameters and statistics
- Common sense
- Data issues
- Managing time periods
3:00 – 3:15 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:15 – 5:00 p.m. :: Illustrative Electric Power Industry Cases
5:00 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for the Day
TUESDAY, AUGUST 16, 2022
9:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. Central Time
9:00 – 9:45 a.m. :: Utility Knowledge and Informed Judgment
- Utility knowledge
- Informed judgment
- Dummy variables
- Merging statistical results with utility knowledge and informed judgment
- Illustrative electric power industry examples
9:45 – 10:30 a.m. :: Addressing Uncertainty
- Probabilistic forecasting
- Scenario-based approaches
- What’s useful to the downstream planning study?
- Extreme events
10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break
10:45 – 11:30 a.m. :: Weather-normalization
- Purpose of weather-normalization
- Normalization methodologies
- What weather is “normal”?
- Peak demand normalization issues
- Illustrative electric power industry examples
11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Challenges and Emerging Topics
- Data, data, data
- Rooftop solar
- Electric vehicles
- COVID-19 / Supply chain considerations
- Climate change
12:15 p.m. :: Course adjourns