Engineers, economists, resource planners and analysts are constantly searching for means and methods by which they can most accurately model and inform their power system requirements to ensure that resources are available to serve load when and where needed. This symposium will examine effective load carrying capacity (ELCC), the resource adequacy (RA) methodology that offers arguably the most sophisticated overall approach to assessing the resource requirements for a particular system. The multiple components of ELCC will be considered in the two different North American resource procurement paradigms: 1) wholesale electricity markets (ISOs and RTOs) and 2) traditional vertically integrated, bi-lateral contracting markets. Discussions will range from the fundamentals of calculating ELCC across a range of resources, to conducting gap analysis for modeling deficiencies, to advanced topics such as taking into account the differing impact of accuracy vs stability calculations on market signals.
Resource adequacy (RA) is one of the critical measures power system analysts used to model reliability of service – an essential requirement – for a utility or power system operator. Multiple conditions drive the requirement for improved accuracy in ensuring system RA – transformational shifts in the grid from centralized to more distributed power generation, the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources w/radically different operating characteristics than the traditional baseload supply stack, legacy and inadequate grid infrastructure, technology shifts, the urgency for decarbonization – and a much longer list. Further mandating the need for improved RA measures is the system distress triggered by weather and other natural disasters seen more frequently by the grid across North America.
Learning Outcomes
The course content will:
- Evaluate how to initiate – or improve existing – ELCC processes
- Examine how ELCC is accredited in different market contexts
- Identify the challenges for modeling, applying and adopting ELCC measures accurately
- Analyze what kind of ELCC study should be conducted and adopted
- Discuss how ELCC is applied to various power system resources
- Assess the factors associated with conducting a gap analysis
- Determine how best to conduct ELCC analysis to account for the impacts of extreme weather and assure reliability
MONDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2021 : CENTRAL TIME
1:00 – 4:45 p.m.
Course Timing
1:00 – 1:15 p.m. :: Overview & Introductions
1:15 – 2:45 p.m. :: Challenges to Evaluating and Adopting ELCC Measures
- Market design, framework, and capacity procurement mechanism variations
- Identifying and balancing stakeholder perspectives
- Formulating a final plan for submittal and adoption to approval authorities
- FERC
- State and provincial regulatory commissions
- Keeping pace with how technology advancement affects RA attainment
- Accreditation in market
- How to group resources
- How to allocate diversity benefit
2:45 – 3:00 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:00 – 4:45 p.m. :: Alternate ELCC Design Approaches Considered by Different Procurement/Market Power Systems
- What kind of ELCC study should be conducted?
- Average vs. marginal ELCC basis
- What are the trade-offs?
- How ELCC is applied to various resources
- Traditional (thermal) generation
- Hydro, by class
- Intermittent, renewable
- Demand response
- Storage
- Hybrid plants
- Impact of accuracy vs stability calculations on market signals
- Establishing annual vs multi-year ELCC calculations
4:45 p.m. :: Adjourn for Day
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2021 : CENTRAL TIME
12:15 – 1:00 p.m.
Lunch Break
9:00 a.m. – 4:45 p.m.
Course Timing
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Initiating – or Improving Existing – ELCC Process
- Purpose and use of RA assessment
- System need
- Policy need
- Emerging needs
- Using new metrics
- Time slices
- Energy sufficiency across all hours of day, week, seasons
- Unserved energy
- Conducting gap analysis
- Market/procurement mechanism vs purpose and need
- Stakeholder interest and readiness
- Data availability and ELCC modeling/analysis readiness
- Access to and incorporation of relevant external data
10:30- 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break
10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Initiating – or Improving Existing – ELCC Processes (cont’d)
- Penetration of non-traditional resources
- ELCC assessment considerations
- Third-party value of independent view vs internal investigator’s knowledge of system
- Internal vs third-party privacy
- Impact on market participants
- Financial impact of market/procurement
- Procedural requirements
12:15 – 1:00 p.m. :: Lunch Break
1:00 – 2:45 p.m. :: Getting ELCC Right – Managing the Changing Fleet
- Integrating renewables
- Recognizing the value of renewables on RA
- Identifying the changing system needs and make necessary mechanism adjustments (shifted system risk timing, increased ramping needs, locational voltage needs, inertia, etc.)
- Managing and recognizing storage
- Properly value the storage contribution to RA
- Providing efficient signal to encourage pairing with storage to maximize value to RA
- Plan for aging resources
- Identify the full value of traditional resources
- Making sensible retirement/replacement decisions (consideration beyond just RA)
- Distinguishing between modeling RA and the physical + operational measures required to achieve RA
2:45 – 3:00 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:00 – 4:45 p.m. :: Getting ELCC Right – Building Resiliency to Account for Impacts of Extreme Weather
- Transmission security and capability under extreme weather conditions
- Impact on generation availability beyond normal plant outage rate
- Correlated weather impact on renewable output
- Gas-electric system coordination
- Socio-economic benefits/considerations/outcomes when building up resiliency
- De-carbonization objectives
- Lessons learned from recent grid events and implications of RA modeling outcomes on grid operations
4:45 p.m. :: Symposium Adjournment
The Mechanics of ELCC
MONDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2021 : CENTRAL TIME
Overview
This workshop will examine the methodology, tools and processes for deriving effective load carrying capacity (ELCC). It will detail the challenges and opportunities that applying ELCC poses to IRP and other power system modelers and analysts. And the workshop will consider ways in which the industry can collaborate to refine the elements and applicability of ELCC “in the real world” of resource adequacy planning.
Learning Outcomes
Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions and exercises that will allow them to:
- Assess when to use ELCC in developing planning reserve margin and resource adequacy assumptions
- Define the methodology to formulate correct ELCC analyses
- Evaluate and address challenges in applying ELCC
- Discuss what is still necessary to resolve before ELCC can be broadly applied as a reserve margin and resource adequacy planning standard
- Identify how and under what circumstances utilities and power system planners can collaborate to further develop and refine the use of ELCC in reserve margin and resource adequacy planning contexts
Agenda
9:15 – 10:30 a.m. :: Linkage between RA and ELCC
- Setting RA objective to establish system capacity requirements
- Attainment instruments
- Capacity market – mostly for de-aggregated jurisdiction)
- Generation procurement – mostly for vertically integrated jurisdiction)
- Attainment processes to ensure that RA requirements are met
- Types of RA measures
- State-of-the-art RA measures
- Traditional generator – EFORd
- Intermittent resources – ELCC
10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Break
10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: ELCC Basics
- Methodology, Tools and Processes for Deriving ELCC
- Correlation between ELCC and resource adequacy
- Defining reliability standard
- Establishing planning reserve margin (PRM)
- Determining capacity contribution evaluation
- ELCC calculations and characteristics
- Relationship to reliability metrics
- Factors
- LOLP starting point and inputs
- Marginal ELCC
- Average (aka, cumulative, portfolio) ELCC
- Diversity benefit allocation
- Synergistic vs antagonistic pairing of resources
- Applying ELCC in Resource Planning
- Total capacity value of portfolio
- Contribution to system capacity need
- Use in capacity expansion model
- Market Applications
- Accreditation in centralized capacity markets
- Multiple frameworks
- Evaluating accreditation methods